At the mouth of New York’s Hudson River, Norwegian oil and gas producer Equinor is constructing what will be the largest U.S. port for offshore wind, potentially symbolizing America’s future in energy.
As the U.S. approaches one of its most closely contested presidential elections, investors and executives are closely examining campaign promises to discern which industries might benefit or suffer under the next administration. As the election approaches, renewable energy is emerging as the industry most vulnerable to the outcome.
Sean McGarvey, president of North America’s Building Trades Unions, which collaborates on offshore wind projects, stated at a conference that a win by Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the upcoming election would be favorable for the offshore wind industry. Conversely, a victory for Donald Trump and J.D. Vance would be detrimental. McGarvey’s prediction that Harris would win received unanimous applause.
Donald Trump has committed to halting offshore wind projects immediately if re-elected. He has also promised to “terminate” the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a significant climate law introduced by President Joe Biden that offers substantial tax credits to reduce renewable energy costs and expedite decarbonization efforts.
Approximately $450 billion in private investment has entered the U.S. energy sector since the IRA’s enactment, according to the Clean Investment Monitor. BloombergNEF forecasts that repealing the IRA would lead to a 17% reduction in new renewable capacity additions from 2025 to 2035. Offshore wind is expected to experience the most significant decline, with potential reductions of 35%.
A Goldman Sachs analysis predicted that renewable energy could be the most significant beneficiary under a Harris administration, whereas it could be among the most adversely affected under a Trump administration, especially alongside tariff-sensitive industries.
Offshore wind, unlike solar and onshore wind, requires federal permits, making it particularly susceptible to changes in administration. The Biden administration had accelerated offshore wind deployment, aiming to install 30GW by 2030 and approving 16GW of commercial-scale projects, beginning from zero at the start of his presidency.
Molly Morris, Equinor’s U.S. president of offshore wind, emphasized that a clear commitment to renewable energy is crucial for advancing offshore wind.
Equinor initiated construction on a 73-acre project called the South Brooklyn Marine Terminal in June. This facility will serve as an assembly site for their offshore wind project, Empire Wind 1, and support future offshore wind endeavors in the region. This project can benefit from IRA tax credits.
The upcoming presidential election will significantly impact corporate America. Bloomberg Intelligence suggests a Trump presidency might lower capital requirements for U.S. banks, weaken subsidies in the Affordable Care Act, and lessen liability protections for major tech companies. A Harris presidency would likely resemble Biden’s policies, potentially increasing scrutiny of banks, major tech firms, and pharmaceutical companies, while continuing IRA implementation and emission reduction efforts.
Sheldon Kimber, CEO of renewables developer Intersect Power, voiced strong support for the Harris campaign. His company has initiated construction on almost all of its projects to mitigate possible impacts from changes in tax credit regulations.
A full IRA repeal would encounter substantial obstacles. Despite the lack of Republican support for its passage, GOP-dominated areas have largely benefited, with over 75% of manufacturing projects announced in the first year located in Republican districts, based on a Financial Times analysis.
In August, 18 congressional Republicans appealed to Speaker Mike Johnson, urging priority on business and market stability regarding any IRA repeal or reform.
Doreen Harris, president of the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, remarked on the bipartisan aspects of the wind projects, stating it would be challenging to dismiss the progress made under the law.
During Trump’s presidency, restrictions on fossil fuel production and emission limits for power plants and vehicles were loosened, yet renewables continued to grow due to renewed tax credits for solar, wind projects, and electric vehicles. The Energy Information Administration reported that wind capacity increased by 45% and solar capacity more than doubled from 2016 to 2020. In a debate with Harris, Trump expressed strong support for solar energy.
Analysts identify potential Trump policies, such as tariffs on Chinese goods and modifications to the IRA’s tax credits for electric vehicles, as posing significant risks to the U.S. energy transition. China dominates clean energy technology production and refines a majority of the mineral inputs.
The Biden administration aims to reduce emissions by 50% to 52% from 2005 levels. Wood Mackenzie forecasts that under Trump, the energy transition would slow, leading to 683 million additional tonnes of carbon emissions by 2030 and a $322 billion reduction in anticipated clean energy investments.
Elizabeth Yeampierre, executive director of Uprose, a Brooklyn community organization supporting the Equinor project, expressed concerns about companies moving operations overseas due to anti-business policies. Adjacent to her office, a barbershop displays a flag that reads: Trump 2024 Take America Back.
