As Election Day approaches, voters are now only hours away from making their final decisions, compelling those still undecided to align with a candidate.
Polling expert Frank Luntz has suggested that Americans who remain truly undecided at this stage are unlikely to cast their votes for either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris and might opt not to vote at all. However, Luntz believes there are uncommitted voters who could be persuaded and these individuals might play a crucial role in the election outcome. Recent data indicate that such voters are reluctantly deciding between two candidates they dislike.
A new New York Times/Siena College poll released on Sunday highlights competitive races in the seven key battleground states. Among those making their decision in the final days, Kamala Harris holds a 58%-42% lead over Donald Trump. Regional differences may influence the Electoral College map, disrupting predictions about which states will determine the election’s winner.
In the Sun Belt, late deciders favor Harris 66% to 34%, while in the North, Trump leads among late deciders 60% to 40%. This suggests potential challenges for the Democrats’ strategy of securing victory through states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, while also indicating Harris might find an alternate path in the South and West.
In the Times poll, Harris leads by three points in Nevada, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, and holds a one-point advantage in Georgia. Trump leads by four points in Arizona and one point in Michigan. The two candidates are tied in Pennsylvania, with results from all seven states falling within the margin of error.
Meanwhile, the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., shows Harris leading Trump 47% to 44%, marking a significant turnaround since September. This result has surprised election analysts, suggesting that traditionally Republican-leaning Iowa could be competitive and that Harris may have more support elsewhere in the Midwest.
These findings are notable as, in 2020, the same poll deflated Democratic expectations of a landslide in the Midwest, given Biden’s narrow victories over Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Elsewhere, prediction markets have fluctuated over the past week, initially favoring Trump but later showing the race as a toss-up or giving a slight edge to Harris. Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University, recently informed Fortune that Trump is experiencing a historic decline in the campaign’s final days, which could result in a victory for Harris.
This shift occurred following a backlash during Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden last month when comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made controversial remarks about Puerto Rico, describing it as “a floating island of garbage,” prompting widespread criticism.
