The White House Watch newsletter provides insights into the implications of the 2024 US election for Washington and the global stage.
Three years ago, when Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it marked a pivotal event akin to 9/11. This aggressive move by Russia, although a product of the nation’s gradual descent, was not unavoidable. However, its occurrence altered the course of history. Western leaders now face an unprecedented convergence of challenges, with managing relations with an unpredictable Russia being among the most significant.
As the conflict enters its fourth year, Ukraine remains the primary victim of the Kremlin’s unwarranted aggression, while Russia, despite being secondary, faces a strategic disaster, particularly when considering the peaceful paths it could have chosen. Ironically, the invasion has created new long-term security challenges for Russia. Previously unimaginable scenarios, such as western missiles targeting Russian sites with minimal repercussions, a non-nuclear nation occupying Russian territory, Finland and Sweden joining NATO, and the deterioration of Russia’s special relationship with Germany, have all materialized. Furthermore, Putin has transformed Ukrainians into a heavily armed, resentful group intent on addressing the wrongs committed by those who considered them “brothers.”
Russia has experienced what was termed a “strategic defeat” by the then US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in March 2022, especially as the assault on Kyiv faltered, embarrassing Moscow. However, by 2025, the situation is grimmer than expected by many in the West. Despite substantial casualties and losses, Russia is advancing against Ukraine’s weakened military. Additionally, the Kremlin is reorganizing its military forces, potentially expanding and enhancing its capabilities by 2030.
Contrary to predictions of economic collapse due to extensive Western sanctions, Russia’s economy endures, guided by market principles and competent technocrats. As a vital exporter of oil and other vital commodities, it remains challenging to completely isolate Russia without global market disruptions. Additionally, support from China and other non-Western countries assists its resilience. Russian society, already fragmented before the war, remains suppressed under repressive measures, while elites have rallied around Putin.
A surprising development came with Donald Trump’s election in the US, which aims to end the war and reduce American involvement. The conflict’s trajectory has been negative for some time, notably since Ukraine’s unsuccessful 2023 counteroffensive. Trump’s election exacerbates the situation. The Kremlin anticipates a swift “dirty deal” from Trump that would end hostilities but leave Ukraine vulnerable without strong security assurances, risking internal collapse amid polarizing presidential elections.
Regardless of the uncertain results of Trump’s diplomatic efforts, it’s evident that even if the conflict ceases and US sanctions are lifted, the Kremlin will continue to perceive the West as a significant threat. Putin’s pride, desire for vengeance, and ambition to leave a mark on Russian history, coupled with the lack of checks and balances in the Kremlin, will drive Moscow to prepare for future conflicts and escalate intimidation tactics against Europe.
Three years ago, Western capitals anticipated Kyiv’s rapid fall. However, Ukrainian resilience, Russian inefficiencies, and Western support thwarted that outcome. Ukraine remains standing, Europe has significantly reduced its reliance on Russian resources, and deterrent investments have occurred. Yet, Europe faces more significant challenges than it did in early 2022. Upgrading the defense industrial base is inconsistent, the post-Covid economic recovery has been disrupted in several countries, making increased defense spending challenging for voters, and under Trump, the US becomes a source of risk rather than a stable European security ally. Additionally, unity within the EU and larger nations is more fractured. Even with strategic proposals like the Draghi report to address these issues, there is uncertainty about the political will to implement them effectively.
The West must address its unrealistic expectations about quickly defeating Putin and managing the Russia issue. Such expectations have contributed to the problem. It is time for a calm, rational discussion on mitigating threats from Russia in the coming decade and preparing for future developments.
