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Recently, Pakistan announced the closure of its airspace to Indian airlines, the suspension of a 1972 peace treaty with India, and warned that any diversion of shared river waters would be seen as an “act of war.” These actions represent a significant escalation in the tensions between the two nuclear-armed countries following an attack in the disputed northern region of Kashmir, which resulted in the deaths of 26 tourists.
In response to the attack, India had previously downgraded diplomatic relations with Pakistan and halted its involvement in a key cross-border water agreement. On Thursday, India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, pledged to “identify, track and punish” those responsible for backing the perpetrators of the attack, which has increased fears of a possible conflict with Pakistan.
Pakistan has denied any participation in the attack in Pahalgam, located in the Indian-administered territory of Jammu and Kashmir. In retaliation, Pakistan accused the Indian government of supporting terrorism. The country’s National Security Committee condemned India’s suspension of the 1960 treaty, which allocates water from the Indus river system between the two nations. The committee stated that any attempts to obstruct or redirect water flow under the Indus Waters Treaty would be considered an act of war, prompting a full-fledged response.
Pakistan declared the suspension of all bilateral agreements with India, including the 1972 peace accord, until India ceases activities perceived as promoting terrorism and transnational killings. This statement appeared to allude to alleged Indian involvement in the killings of separatist Sikh activists in Canada and Pakistan.
The committee indicated that Pakistan would put on hold the Simla Agreement, a framework that has defined bilateral relations since its post-war signing in 1971, and established the Line of Control in Kashmir.
Michael Kugelman, a South Asia analyst based in Washington, noted that the Indus Water Treaty and Simla accord have acted as stabilizing factors ensuring basic cooperation during high tensions between Pakistan and India. He expressed concern that the current situation introduces unpredictability into the relationship between the two countries.
Authorities in Jammu and Kashmir reported on Thursday that two of the three suspects linked to the Pahalgam attack were Pakistani nationals and members of a militant group responsible for one of India’s deadliest attacks on civilians. In an online “Wanted” notice, local police labeled these individuals as “LeT terrorists,” referring to the Pakistan-based group Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, which was behind the 2008 Mumbai attacks that resulted in 175 deaths.
In a public address in Bihar, India, Modi declared his government’s intention to pursue those responsible for the attack, reminiscent of the deadliest incident targeting Indians in Kashmir since a 2019 suicide bombing that claimed 40 paramilitary lives. He emphasized India’s resolve to bring terrorists and their supporters to justice, stating that India’s spirit would not be broken by terrorism.
In retaliation, India shut down its sole border crossing with Pakistan, expelled Pakistani military advisers, withdrew its own advisers from Pakistan, and reduced the number of diplomats in each country from 55 to 30. India’s suspension of its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty is unprecedented, posing a potential risk to agriculture in Pakistan amid planting season and its ongoing economic difficulties.
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar, countered these assertions, stating on local television that there was no evidence linking Islamabad to the Pahalgam attack and warned of reciprocal measures in response to any Indian actions.
The diplomatic standoff adds to the pressure on Pakistan’s already struggling economic recovery, which is grappling with stagflation and rising power costs. The Indus Waters Treaty remains crucial for Pakistan, ensuring access to the western rivers of the Indus basin, vital for agriculture, energy, and daily life. Farooq Tariq, a farmer and activist in Punjab, warned of severe repercussions for Pakistan’s agriculture sector if there is any disruption in water supply, especially given the existing water scarcity affecting farmers.
