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Donald Trump recently expressed a plaintive message directed at Russian President Vladimir Putin, urging him to halt the bombing of Kyiv. However, Putin is unlikely to cease. He believes time favors him in the conflict with Ukraine, both on the battlefield and internationally. Trump is advancing a peace plan with scheduled calls to both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Both leaders find themselves in similarly precarious positions amid Trump’s diplomatic efforts.
Neither leader favors Trump’s peace plan, despite assertions by Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, that it represents the best path forward. Nonetheless, both understand the risks of antagonizing Trump. Consequently, Russia and Ukraine are adopting a strategy of engaging in peace talks while banking on the possibility that the other will be blamed if negotiations fail.
Under pressure from the US, a temporary ceasefire might be agreed upon by Ukraine and Russia, yet the chances of it leading to a comprehensive peace settlement remain slim. The war aims of both nations remain fundamentally at odds. Russia’s primary objective continues to be the cessation of Ukraine as a sovereign state, potentially transforming it into a satellite state under Russian influence, while limiting Ukraine’s military capacity and Western affiliations.
The US plan faces criticism in Europe for conceding key Russian demands regarding occupied territories and recognizing Russian sovereignty over Crimea, yet it does not meet Russia’s broader demands on Ukrainian sovereignty and neutrality. Ukrainians, fearing Putin’s continued aggression, are also wary of the American proposal. Concessions over Crimea and eastern Ukraine are sensitive subjects in Kyiv. Zelenskyy is reluctant to agree to anything that limits Ukraine’s future defense capabilities or its Western ties.
Despite NATO membership being off the table, Ukraine seeks credible security guarantees from the West to prevent Russia from exploiting a ceasefire to lift sanctions while preparing for further conflict. The outcome of Trump’s peace initiative and who he holds responsible if talks collapse is critical. If Trump blames Zelenskyy, Putin could anticipate loosened sanctions and a halt in the US military aid to Ukraine. Conversely, should Trump hold Putin accountable, it could result in intensified sanctions against Russia and renewed weapon supplies to Ukraine.
Currently, circumstances seem to favor Russia. Trump’s favorable view of Putin and skepticism towards Zelenskyy suggest he might quickly lose patience with the Ukrainian leader, potentially seeking business engagements with Russia over military support for Ukraine. The Kremlin might see potential in Trump easing sanctions, which could pressure the EU to follow suit.
Though the recent defeat of a pro-Russian candidate in Romania’s presidential election was a setback for Putin, it does not ensure continued EU sanctions, which require unanimous renewal. Even if EU and US sanctions persist, a reduction in US support for Ukraine remains probable following failed peace talks.
On the battlefield, an equilibrium persists. While Russia gradually gains territory, Western analysts suggest its military may soon lack resources to sustain advances. Simultaneously, Ukraine’s proficiency in defensive and drone warfare imposes significant losses on Russian forces, although Ukrainian casualties remain substantial. Given Ukraine’s smaller population, Putin might believe a war of attrition could ultimately favor Russia.
Trump’s concern over the conflict’s toll is valid, and his efforts to end the bloodshed are commendable. However, Russia’s belief in its advantageous position diminishes its motivation to compromise for lasting peace. For Trump to succeed in persuading "Vladimir" to cease hostilities, additional pressure on Russia may be necessary.
