If polling results are accurate, the upcoming presidential election is anticipated to be closely contested. However, beyond the close matchup, there are notable shifts in the American political landscape.
The article outlines key voting groups to monitor during the election night. These groups might provide insights into whether former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will emerge victorious.
### 1. Observing White Voter Support for Harris
White voters, as the largest voting demographic, have predominantly supported Republicans over the past two decades. However, the increasing Latino and Asian American populations have led to a decline in the proportion of white voters since the 1990s. Barack Obama became the first candidate to secure the presidency with less than 40% of the white vote in 2012. Hillary Clinton did not succeed in 2016 with 37%, while Biden won four years later with more than 40%. According to an October NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, Harris secured support from 45% of white voters, the highest percentage for a Democrat since 1976, yet only held a 2-point lead because Trump was reducing margins with Black and Latino voters.
### 2. The Educational Divide Among White Voters
The educational divide has been a significant factor among white voters since Trump’s tenure. Previously, white voters with college degrees leaned Republican, but there was a shift between 2016 and 2020, leading to a narrow win for Biden. Current polling indicates an expanding Democratic advantage within this group. Conversely, white voters without college degrees have increasingly supported Republicans, with the Trump campaign aiming to boost turnout among this demographic, despite their traditionally lower voting rates.
### 3. Gender Gap Considerations
Women have comprised a majority of the electorate in presidential elections over the last 40 years. The Democrats achieved their largest share of women voters, 57%, in 2020. They are focusing on increasing this number further by emphasizing women’s reproductive rights in response to the overturning of Roe v. Wade. In contrast, Trump’s strong male support could either widen or close the gender gap, which was notable in the previous two elections.
### 4. Trump’s Influence on Black Voters
Trump’s efforts to attract young Black male voters from the Democratic Party are a focal point in this election. While pre-election polling offers limited clarity, exit polls will provide more insight into his impact. In 2020, 87% of Black voters supported Biden, a slight decrease from Obama’s era but consistent with past Democratic performances. However, NPR polls suggest Harris may receive lower support from Black voters compared to her Democratic predecessors, with concerns this could affect the outcome in key swing states.
### 5. Latino Voter Trends and Trump’s Strategy
Latinos are the nation’s fastest-growing voting bloc. They have consistently favored Democratic candidates in the past four elections but did show increased support for Trump. Economic concerns, such as inflation and housing, could influence their voting preferences. Trump’s messaging to Latinos who immigrated legally might resonate, despite potential setbacks due to controversial comments from campaign events.
### 6. Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) Influence
AAPI voters are emerging as a crucial constituency. Their support for Democrats, notably in states like Nevada and Georgia, could prove decisive. As AAPI voter turnout increases, it is expected to play a significant role in influencing election outcomes in these regions.
### 7. Young Voter Engagement
Young voter turnout has been pivotal for Democratic wins in past elections. However, current polls show that Harris is struggling to galvanize this group. If Harris aims to secure states like North Carolina, increasing engagement with young voters will be essential.
### 8. Potential Gains Among Senior Voters
Harris might become the first Democrat since Al Gore in 2000 to win over senior voters, a critical demographic given their high turnout rates. Success with seniors could counterbalance Trump’s stronghold among white, non-college voters.
### 9. Union Voter Impact in Key States
Historically, Democrats have held sway with union voters, an advantage prevalent in the Blue Wall states and Nevada. Union demographics are evolving, with younger and more white-collar segments emerging, indicating potential shifts in voting patterns.
### 10. Suburban and Rural Voting Dynamics
The suburbs, which have leaned towards Democrats, contrast with the strong Republican support in rural areas. For Harris to succeed, she must replicate or exceed Biden’s suburban performance while also attempting to reduce Trump’s rural margins.
In conclusion, the upcoming election will hinge on several demographic and regional dynamics, with the results likely shaping future political strategies. The election’s outcome will depend on the interactions and turnout of these diverse voter groups.
