A recent analysis of voting patterns from the last election indicates that the Democratic Party is significantly unprepared for future challenges. The Democratic polling organization, Catalist, released a detailed report on the setbacks the party experienced during the 2024 election cycle, indicating a systemic failure.
In the report, it is noted that Democrats underperformed in most battleground areas and across nearly all demographic groups compared to the 2020 election. Although voter turnout was high, at 64 percent, the Harris-Walz campaign struggled, losing support across almost all electoral subgroups. For instance, support from return voters fell by 2 points compared to the previous cycle. Additionally, the campaign lost support among voters of color and saw larger gender gaps within these groups.
For the first time, new voters leaned away from Democrats, and approximately 30 million voters from 2020 did not participate in 2024, a figure unprecedented in the 21st century. Swing voters shifted significantly, favoring the Trump-Vance ticket, which won the seven battleground states. The decline in support from non-college-educated voters, a trend since 2016, continued alongside a drop in support from college-educated voters, declining from 59 percent to 56 percent between 2020 and 2024.
Looking back to 2012, the last time Democrats felt confident in their coalition, the numbers are increasingly concerning. Democratic analyst Ruy Teixeira highlighted that the non-white working-class vote margin has halved since Obama’s era. Hispanic support, for example, dropped from a 38-point advantage in 2012 to just a 6-point margin in 2024 for Harris. The gender gap also widened, with Harris losing the male vote by 16 points, as opposed to Obama’s 5-point deficit in 2012.
Catalist’s report makes clear that the Democratic Party’s issues run deeper than messaging tweaks or demographic targeting. The party faces a crisis of credibility with the electorate, losing support from key groups once thought to be foundational to its future coalition.
The GOP, while benefiting in the 2024 elections, isn’t forming a stable majority either. Despite gains among young men and voters of color, these groups may not provide long-term support. The challenge for Democrats remains to develop an effective strategy to counteract these losses and reinvigorate their support base.
Moreover, political dynamics involve crafting compelling narratives. The Catalist team suggests that Democrats need to win over high-turnout swing voters and engage those who lean Democratic but vote inconsistently.
Axios reports on the GOP’s attempts to mitigate potential losses in the 2026 midterms, highlighting Trump’s efforts to protect Republican incumbents and counter primary challenges. Any Democratic momentum is hindered by internal disagreements and reluctance to act decisively, even when faced with the GOP-led legislative agenda that exacerbates income inequality.
Democratic leaders and candidates are urged to explore opportunities and adopt stronger economic populist platforms. Current Democratic figures like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are actively rallying against oligarchy, suggesting a potential path forward, though mainstream party leaders have yet to fully embrace such initiatives. The party’s resistance to significant change threatens to lead to further setbacks in future elections.
