The remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia, which recently hit North Carolina, are expected to bring significant rainfall and potential flooding to parts of the Northeast. Weather models predict a range of 1 to 8 inches of rainfall in areas such as New York City and southern New England between Thursday night and early Saturday. This rainfall is a result of the moisture left behind by Ophelia. Additionally, Tropical Storm Philippe and newly formed Tropical Storm Rina are presenting challenges for forecasters as they approach the Caribbean. Philippe may hover to the east while Rina curls around it. The Atlantic hurricane season has been exceptionally busy, with the most active period on record occurring from August 20 to September 28.
In the Northeast, meteorologists are facing a tricky forecast with a small but intense corridor of downpours expected to establish into Friday night. These downpours could produce rainfall rates of 2 inches or more per hour, potentially leading to isolated 6 inch totals. Some models suggest that the zone to watch for heavy rains is northeast New Jersey to New York City, while others depict a more expansive zone across southern New England. Uncertainty remains high, and it is challenging to determine the exact areas that will see significant flooding. The weather pattern in the region has been unsettled due to a broad zone of low pressure evolving from the remnants of Ophelia. This has resulted in cool and dreary conditions for the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Philippe is currently disorganized and located east of the Lesser Antilles. Although it has 50 mph winds, it appears scrappy on satellite imagery. The storm has an exposed low-level center, and most of the thunderstorm activity is displaced east of that center due to wind shear. Models suggest that Philippe will head west before turning north, potentially passing close to the northern Leeward Islands next week as a tropical storm. Newly formed Tropical Storm Rina, located about 500 to 600 miles east of Philippe, is expected to follow a similar track but turn safely away from the islands. However, there is a chance that Philippe and Rina may interact and affect each other’s paths, leading to uncertainties in the forecast.