EU capitals are urgently preparing assessments of their biggest vulnerabilities should Donald Trump secure re-election as President of the United States, as polls indicate the race is leaning in his favor. Senior EU officials are engaged in daily meetings to identify potential issues a Trump presidency might pose for the bloc, according to individuals familiar with the discussions.
Topics under consideration include strategies to handle potential trade tariffs, address the cessation of US aid to Ukraine, and uphold sanctions against Russia if the US moves to lift them. A senior EU diplomat emphasized the seriousness of the situation, stating that there is an effort to minimize any potential surprises.
Preparations involve formal discussions between EU ambassadors and Ursula von der Leyen’s staff, the European Commission president, along with informal groups of senior EU diplomats devising possible strategies. Trump has proposed imposing a flat 10 percent tariff on all imports and has expressed doubts about US support for Kyiv and NATO, the latter being a cornerstone of Europe’s defense.
Polling data shows that Trump is in a close contest with Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of the November 5 election and has gained ground over his Democratic rival on economic issues, as indicated by a Financial Times poll released recently. Another EU diplomat voiced concern over a potential Trump victory, noting the disruption and unpredictability it could bring.
Charles Michel, the European Council president, stated that a Trump win would necessitate “immediate decisions” by the US administration, which would have significant short-term effects on Europe. He also noted that a Trump presidency could serve as a catalyst for Europe to take greater control over its future.
Officials are worried that Trump’s proposed tariffs could result in a reduction of EU exports to the US by approximately €150 billion annually. The European Commission, responsible for trade policy, has already crafted a strategy to quickly negotiate increased US imports to the EU, opting for targeted retaliation only if necessary.
This week, Goldman Sachs projected that the euro might decline by up to 10 percent against the dollar should Trump implement broad tariffs and cut domestic taxes. A study by the German Economic Institute in Cologne suggested that a trade conflict could reduce the GDP of the EU’s largest economy by 1.5 percent.
The most pressing security issue for EU officials is determining how to continue supporting Ukraine if Trump halts the provision of weapons, which have been crucial in resisting Russia’s invasion. Although the EU has supplied more financial aid to Ukraine than the US, American military stockpiles and capabilities surpass those of European nations, and officials say the EU cannot match US military support.
There is also significant concern among EU officials regarding the possibility that a Trump administration might relax sanctions on Russia. This scenario raises questions about the EU’s ability to maintain economic pressure on Moscow without US backing, even if other allies like Japan and the UK continue to impose sanctions.
Trump’s skepticism toward NATO has exacerbated existing fears regarding Europe’s reliance on US security guarantees. Another EU diplomat pointed out that if Trump is re-elected, the bloc will face substantial pressure to secure funding for defense, possibly shifting discussions from €100 billion to €1 trillion.
EU talks to brace for a potential Trump return to office have intensified, following von der Leyen’s formation of an internal “war room” earlier this year focusing primarily on trade and security issues. NATO officials are also strategizing on how to mitigate potential disruption and secure continued support for Ukraine. One suggestion is to enhance the 32-nation alliance’s role in coordinating weapons supply and training Ukrainian troops to reduce US control over these areas.
NATO’s new secretary-general, Mark Rutte, who had maintained a good relationship with Trump during his first term, affirmed that NATO’s unity on Ukraine would remain intact. However, Michel noted there is no assurance that Harris would uphold existing US policies toward Ukraine, indicating that both candidates are likely to prioritize the US economy.
Michel concluded that while the tone might differ between candidates, there is an underlying protectionist trend in the US.
