A recent study has assessed the likelihood of triggering climate ‘tipping points’ at 62 percent, based on current policies and the resulting temperature increases. Tipping points, such as the collapse of ice sheets and the demise of coral reefs, represent irreversible and abrupt changes for societies and ecosystems, predicted to occur under ongoing global warming.
Researchers from the universities of Exeter, UK, and Hamburg, Germany, examined the risk of such tipping points under various emissions scenarios, including low, medium, and high emissions. Their findings, published in the journal Earth System Dynamics, suggest a 62 percent probability of triggering these tipping points if emissions continue to rise until mid-century before beginning to fall.
In particular, the Amazon rainforest in South America faces a 53 percent chance of experiencing its climate tipping point. Tim Lenton, a professor at the University of Exeter and an author of the study, cautioned that climate tipping points could have severe consequences for humanity and emphasized the current dangerous path that necessitates a shift to prevent these outcomes.
The study also identified that addressing emissions could significantly lower the risk of triggering tipping points to 37 percent. Jakob Deutloff, the study’s lead author and a researcher at the University of Hamburg, highlighted the positive message that preventing climate tipping points remains feasible through a transition to a lower emissions future.
The authors underscored the urgency for global climate action, noting that rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are essential to lower the risk of crossing these tipping points, which are already close to being reached. The decision of whether these points will be crossed is expected to unfold within the coming decades.
