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The Changing Landscape of UK Politics
The recent victory of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in the English local elections has sparked division among commentators. Some predict a seismic shift in politics, while others believe the situation will stabilize over time.
Since Brexit, UK politics have taken a more European turn. Support for major parties has waned, with an unpopular government and an unappealing opposition. Voters are exploring various options, and the UK now has its own populist nationalist movement.
Historically, the UK has experienced multi-party moments, yet at the last general election, the combined support for Labour and the Tories dropped from 82 percent in 2017 to 57 percent. Last week’s results show support barely above a third, suggesting more than a minor fluctuation.
It remains uncertain whether these results indicate a lasting change in the political structure or a temporary phase of transformation. The major parties must navigate an unfamiliar political environment where past assurances no longer hold.
A common perspective is that two-party politics may be ending. Reform is challenging the Conservatives, while Labour’s support weakens on the left. Although Farage’s ascendance disrupts the status quo, it is unclear whether the longstanding duopoly is broken or merely evolving.
The UK is experiencing a rightward shift around immigration and nativism, similar to many Western countries. The Conservatives have already adjusted significantly. Whether Reform replaces the Tories, they recover, or they form an alliance, the likely outcome seems to be a single dominant entity.
A senior Labour figure noted that the opposition’s agenda is not set by the official opposition for the first time in recent memory. The dynamic opposition now arises from county councils and mayoralties, with discourse shaped on social media. Unlike the 1980s municipal opposition under Labour, Farage’s movement faces challenges in controlling its regional bases, which might overstep. Nonetheless, its outsider stance influences the broader political discourse.
The UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system, traditionally a barrier to new parties, has prompted Reform to advocate for change. New parties are often stymied unless they secure near 30 percent of the vote. Breaching this threshold could lead to significant parliamentary wins, as shown by Reform’s recent success.
Despite this, the electoral system still favors long-term two-party politics. New parties emerge to fill market gaps, but established ones adapt to close these gaps, altering their character in the process. Labour, too, faces pressure to protect its left flank.
Strategically, elections were once won by occupying the center ground, but this center is shifting. Voter dissatisfaction with orthodox economics and progressive social policy has fueled realignment on the right, now embodying social conservatism and interventionist economics.
This shift raises two questions: whether there is still room for two major parties in the traditional center, or if, akin to parts of the EU, only one party can dominate that space. Additionally, the interest in the centrist territory is declining. The Conservatives and Reform have mostly moved away from it, leaving Labour (with its mild pro-European stance and fiscal prudence) better positioned to occupy it.
However, Labour is also competing for voters attracted by Reform, aiming to be seen as the voice of the underdog rather than a pro-globalization party. This necessitates balancing its appeal to successful liberals and less affluent workers, while fearing voter fragmentation to the Greens. A broad coalition may not be as advantageous as it once was.
While paths to stability remain possible—such as Reform’s potential collapse or a Labour or Tory resurgence—old strategies are losing relevance. Reform’s success stems partly from its quick adaptation to the evolving political environment, while Labour and the Tories appear disoriented.
For more insights, contact: robert.shrimsley@ft.com
