In light of widespread discussions regarding Trump’s tariffs—a series of levies expected to significantly impact global trade and potentially increase the cost of iPhones—there is a pertinent query about whether the Trump administration utilized artificial intelligence to determine these tariffs. This would be an unprecedented move. The tariff document, referred to as Trump’s “Reciprocal Tariffs” table, while not yet conclusive, could end up being a crucial document of the decade. However, some argue that the figures presented in the document seem questionable.
Despite being labeled as “reciprocal,” the tariffs do not appear to be so. The White House seems to have applied a basic formula involving the division of the U.S. trade deficit with a country by the total imports from that country and then halving the result. Importantly, this calculation does not account for any existing tariffs that countries may impose on U.S. imports, a point further evidenced by finance writer James Surowiecki.
Furthermore, the list of countries and territories included in the tariffs, some of which lack human populations, has sparked widespread online amusement and commentary. Tech artist Gordon Chapman initially suggested that the White House’s tariff table might correspond with internet top-level domains rather than actual countries, hinting at potential AI involvement in the table’s creation. However, Chapman later clarified that the table likely stems from available trade data.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick noted that United States Trade Representative economists had been working on the tariff strategy for years. Nonetheless, some experts criticized the tariffs as producing numbers without a sound methodological basis. Interestingly, when asked to calculate U.S tariffs easily, large language models like ChatGPT provided a similar formula to the one reportedly used by the White House.
The exact future of these tariffs remains uncertain, with Eric Trump suggesting on social media that the tariffs figures serve as a preliminary stage for trade negotiations. He emphasized that early negotiators with former President Trump could benefit. Whether the initial calculations hold significance remains to be seen, especially if they were influenced by AI, a suggestion that could indicate a lack of thoroughness reminiscent of previous controversies. It raises questions about the potential reliance on AI for complex tasks within the administration.
