The Russian rouble briefly weakened past 100 to the dollar before making a slight recovery, as the country faced foreign currency outflows and a shrinking current account surplus. The Russian central bank had made an emergency rate hike in August when the rouble fell into triple digits, and there were discussions about reintroducing controls to support the currency. Analysts predict that the rouble may temporarily move beyond 100 to the dollar without new support measures from the authorities. Falling exports due to Western sanctions and changing trade flows have contributed to the rouble’s weakness.
President Vladimir Putin’s economic adviser criticized the central bank when the rouble fell to 101.75 per dollar in August, blaming its loose policy for the decline. Alor Broker’s Alexei Antonov believes that the rouble will continue to depreciate, as the level of 100 is seen as an important psychological barrier. The central bank has already raised rates twice this year and is expected to tighten monetary policy again at its next scheduled meeting. The rouble has experienced volatility since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the current account surplus has significantly decreased this year due to falling exports and increased imports.
In summary, the Russian rouble weakened past 100 to the dollar due to foreign currency outflows and a shrinking current account surplus. The central bank had previously made an emergency rate hike in response to a similar decline, and discussions have taken place about reintroducing controls to support the currency. Falling exports, Western sanctions, and changing trade flows have contributed to the rouble’s depreciation. President Putin’s economic adviser criticized the central bank for its loose policies, and analysts predict that the rouble may temporarily move beyond 100 without new support measures. The central bank is expected to tighten monetary policy further at its next meeting.
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