In this news article, the author discusses the unpredictable nature of Donald Trump’s foreign policies and attempts to forecast what might happen if he is elected for a second term. The author highlights that Trump’s egoism makes it difficult to predict his actions, as he can either focus inwardly on protecting US interests or take bolder actions on the international stage to assert American strength. However, the author believes that certain outcomes are probable under a second Trump administration.
Firstly, the author suggests that the US would likely reduce sanctions against Russia and slow down military support to Ukraine, both of which would be justified as prioritizing US interests. However, this would ultimately weaken America’s global clout, as supporting Ukraine has been an effective way to demonstrate its power to countries that hedge between China and the US. Additionally, Trump is expected to intensify his threats against international treaties, such as NATO, bilateral guarantees with South Korea and Japan, and the World Trade Organization.
On the other hand, the author points out that there may be more continuities than ruptures in Trump’s policies, especially in areas such as protectionism, Iran, and the withdrawal from Afghanistan, where Joe Biden has not deviated significantly from Trump’s approach. The only policy that is likely to surprise the world is Trump’s stance on US-China relations. While Trump initially focused on economic grievances with China, others, including Biden and the US political and business elite, have widened the conflict to include strategic and ideological differences. The author emphasizes that if Trump feels respected on trade, he may not be interested in containing China, which could have significant implications for Taiwan and the confidence of US allies.
Overall, the author presents a unique perspective on the unpredictable nature of Trump’s foreign policies and suggests that while some outcomes are probable, such as reduced support for Ukraine and intensified threats to international treaties, there may be surprises in Trump’s approach to US-China relations in a second term.
In conclusion, the author asserts that Trump’s egoism makes it challenging to predict his foreign policies, which can either prioritize US interests or assert American strength globally. However, the author believes that under a second Trump administration, there are certain probable outcomes, including reduced support for Ukraine, intensified threats against international treaties, and a unique stance on US-China relations. The author highlights the significance of Trump’s approach towards China, as it could have far-reaching consequences for Taiwan and allies’ confidence in the American empire. Despite the difficulties in forecasting Trump’s actions, the author suggests that a Trump-led detente on US-China relations might be a surprising outcome in an otherwise predictable second term.