In a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS, voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two crucial states in the 2020 presidential election, are expressing dissatisfaction with the current candidate choices for the upcoming general election. The polls show a dead-even race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in Pennsylvania, with Trump leading in Michigan. Biden’s winning coalition from 2020 appears to be more intact in Pennsylvania compared to Michigan, indicating a challenging rematch for him against Trump in these states.
Interestingly, a significant portion of voters in both states remain open to changing their minds before the election, potentially impacting the final outcome. Subgroups like independents and younger voters show the most room for movement, with a notable percentage expressing less than solidly decided positions. Despite Biden’s underwater approval ratings, he still holds support from a double-digit share of voters who disapprove of his performance, a trend that contrasts with Trump’s previous performance among disapproving voters in the 2020 election.
Overall, the polls suggest that the race in Michigan and Pennsylvania is shaping up more as a referendum on the former president rather than the current one. Majorities of Trump supporters express their vote as support for him, while Biden’s backers are primarily motivated by opposition to Trump. As the campaign progresses, the dynamics between the candidates, voters’ concerns about key issues, and the potential for changes in voter perceptions indicate a closely contested election in these pivotal states.